House Minority Whip Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) on Tuesday became the latest Republican to predict a government shutdown this fall when Congress and the White House spar about the size of an annual spending package that is assured to eclipse President Bush's request.
"It is inevitable," Blunt said. The Senate isn't expected to take up most of its annual spending bills by the start of the new fiscal year, Oct. 1; this would create a logjam that would force Congress to approve a stopgap measure in order to consider a massive omnibus spending package to fund the federal government.
Despite sagging approval ratings, Bush is expected to veto any package that exceeds his initial request to the Congress. Republicans on the Hill would then be forced to sustain that veto.
Blunt, the top GOP vote-counter in the House, predicts his members would support their president, forcing a perilous showdown with major political stakes for either party.
Republicans are bracing for the prospect of a spending fight by positioning themselves before lawmakers leave for the monthlong summer recess.
The biggest variable at this stage remains when Democrats choose to address the measure. By starting the process earlier, both sides could expedite a showdown and hammer out a resolution to keep the federal government running.
But this is Washington, so don't hold your breath on that one.
UPDATE: Blunt's aides suggest the congressman was referring to a "showdown over the shutdown" - a line borrowed from the esteemed Rich Cohen of National Journal - rather than an actual shutdown of the federal government. This contradicts the rather lengthy scenario for a shutdown Blunt laid out during our discussion, at least as I chronicled it in my notebook - along with the "It is inevitable" quote. But I am happy to note the distinction; leaders do not want to look overly eager for a showdown, even though lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have begun laying the foundation for a shutdown battle.
So, dear reader, I apologize for the confusion. Please parse this however you choose.
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