Leaning on lessons learned about the home front in last summer's war, municipality workers survey shelters, analyze risks for central Israel area
Eli Senior
One of the most memorable impressions left by the Second Lebanon War was the lack of preparedness in the homefront. Inadequate shelter in the rocket-plagued north had thousands of Israeli citizens fleeing south to Tel Aviv.  
But with the range of Qassams spreading farther north, and hostile sources in Lebanon hinting that Hizbullah has longer range missiles that will be able to target Tel Aviv, it may be that central Israel will no longer be a place of refuge.  
So how safe is Tel Aviv in the event of an attack? Defense analysts extended hypotheses about the damage that would be incurred in a variety of scenarios, calculating the risks for various streets in Israel's largest city.  
They posited that only one conventional missile hitting in a central street would leave at least 25 people dead and hundreds injured, as well as damaging dozens of buildings.   
If two missiles were to land at the same time, fatalities could more than double. In one such test case, over 800 people would need to be hospitalized, the analysts said. In the case of a chemical attack, the analysts expected that some 3,000 residents would need to be evacuated, and leave over 10 dead.
Public shelters in good shape
Tel Aviv has 236 public shelters, as well as some hundred fortified schools around the cities. Some 140 of the shelters are dual-use structures, doubling as organizational headquarters, artists' studios, clubs and even synagogues.  
In the past year, many of these have been upgraded, under supervision by the municipality. In an inspection by the homefront command this year, the public shelters in Tel Aviv received a grade of 99 out of a possible 100.  
The problem lies in shelters for private homes or buildings, thousands of which are not properly monitored by the municipality because they are meant to be maintained by residents of the building.  
In reality, many of the private shelters are in bad shape, and in some cases completely unusable in case of emergencies. As such, the Tel Aviv municipality has begun to survey private shelters, as well.   
In addition to dealing with shelters, the municipality is working to increase its firefighter reserves force. So far, some 400 back-up firefighters have been trained, which would enable the city to triple its forces in case of emergency. They have also created an improved urban operations room for emergencies.  
Meanwhile, average residents of Tel Aviv seemed undisturbed by the possibility of an attack on the city. David (31), from northern Tel Aviv explained: "If missiles can hit Tel Aviv, they can hit anywhere in the country, so there's no reason to leave the city."
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