By Amos Harel
tags: Israel, Mahmoud Abbas  
Syria is holding firm on its demand that the Golan Heights be among the items on the agenda of the upcoming Middle East peace conference scheduled to take place in late November at Annapolis.
Amid speculation that Washington could soon dispatch official invitations to the summit, Syria's Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah al-Dardari told BBC radio Wednesday that, "When such an invitation, and if such an invitation should come, it should include an agenda with the Golan Heights clearly placed on that agenda. If not, why should we be there in Annapolis?"
Asked whether the conference could achieve any kind of peace deal without Syria, Dardari said: "Definitely not... No peace without Syria in the Middle East." 
Israel Defense Forces Military Intelligence believes that the U.S-sponsored summit is likely to fail, and that Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas might step down as a result.
Abbas reportedly views the Annapolis conference as the last opportunity to resuscitate the peace process. If he does go home in the wake of a failure of the talks, without a successor acceptable to Fatah, Abbas' departure would create a lacuna in the Palestinian leadership and increase Hamas influence.
According to Military Intelligence, Abbas' inner circle is cut off from the Fatah rank and file, and has difficulty exerting its authority over the various military wings of Fatah (the Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades in the various West Bank cities) and its political activists. This lack of full control at the grass-roots level might make it difficult for the PA to fulfill its obligations as part of a diplomatic process.
As Haaretz reported a few weeks ago, MI believes the chances for success at Annapolis are "close to nil."
The IDF believes the main obstacle is disagreement over the Palestinians meeting their obligations as part of the first stage of the road map, set forward by the Bush administration in 2002: dismantling terror infrastructure. The Palestinian Authority says it has met this obligation, and is not responsible for the Qassam rocket fire on the western Negev since the attacks emanate from the Gaza Strip, which is no longer under its control.
Israel Defense Forces intelligence officers say the PA's main function has been reduced to paying salaries to PA workers and security forces.
However, the IDF also notes that security cooperation between the Shin Bet and the PA's preventive security forces and its general intelligence force has been renewed recently and ties are much closer. The PA security forces have been transmitting important information to Israel and have frequently thwarted terror attacks.
Former senior IDF officers who took part in the Camp David talks say they are also concerned that over the lack of experience of Israeli representatives to the Annapolis talks, especially in the face of the years of experience the PA's negotiators have had in talks with Israel.
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