ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Yes, America needs a recession.
Bernanke and Paulson won't admit it. And investors hate them. We're all
trapped in outdated 1990s wishful thinking about a "new economy" and
"perpetual growth."
But the truth is, not only is a recession coming, America needs a
recession. So think positive: Let's focus on 17 benefits from this
recession.
To begin with, recession may be an understatement. Jeremy Grantham's
GMO firm manages $150 billion. In his midyear report before the credit
crisis hit he predicted: "In 5 years I expect that at least one major
'bank' (broadly defined) will have failed and that up to half the hedge
funds and a substantial percentage of the private-equity firms in
existence today will have simply ceased to exist."
He was "watching a very slow motion train wreck." By October, it was
accelerating: "Train hits end of track at full speed."
Also back in August, The Economist took a hard look at the then
emerging subprime/credit crisis: "The policy dilemma facing the Fed may
not be a choice of recession or no recession. It may be between a mild
recession now, and a nastier one later."
However, the publication did admit that "even if a recession were in
America's long-term economic interest, it would be political suicide"
for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to
suggest it.
Then The Economist posed the big question: Yes, "central banks must
stop recessions from turning into deep depressions. But it may be wrong
to prevent them altogether."
Wrong to prevent a recession? Why? Because recessions are a natural and
necessary part of the business cycle. Remember legendary economist
Joseph Schumpeter, champion of innovation and entrepreneurship?
Economists love Schumpeter's "creative destruction:" Obsolete firms get
destroyed and capital released, making way for new technologies, new
businesses, like Google. And yet, nobody's willing to apply
Schumpeter's theory to the entire economy ... and admit recessions are
a natural part of the business cycle.
Instead, everyone persists in the childlike fairy tale that "all growth
is good" and "all recessions are bad," a bad hangover of the '90s "new
economy" ideology. So for the folks at the Fed, Treasury and Wall
Street, "eternal growth" is still America's mantra.
Unfortunately, the American investors' brain has also developed this
blind obsession with "growth-at-all-costs," coupled with a deadly fear
of all recessions, as if recessions are a lethal super-bug more
powerful than Iran with a bomb.
Our values are distorted: It's OK to be greedy and overshoot the market
on the upside -- grab too many assets, take on too much debt, make
consumer spending a religion, live beyond our means, ignite
hyperinflation along the way. Growth is good, even in excess.
And yet, recessions are a no-no that drives politicians, economists and
investors ballistic.
Well, folks, you can block all this from your mind, you can argue that
recessions are not a part of Schumpeter's thinking, that they are
inconsistent with your political ideology. But the fact is, we let the
housing/credit boom become a massive bubble, it popped and a recession
is coming. So think positive, consider some of the benefits of a
recession:
1. Purge the excesses of the housing boom
No, it's not heartless. Not like wartime calculations of "acceptable
collateral damage." Yes, The Economist admits "the economic and social
costs of recession are painful: unemployment, lower wages and profits,
and bankruptcy." But we can't reverse Greenspan's excessive rate cuts
that created the housing/credit crisis. It'll be painful for everyone,
especially millions of unlucky, mislead homeowners who must bear the
brunt of Wall Street's greed and Washington's policy failures.
2. U.S. dollar wake-up call
Reverse the dollar's free fall and revive our global credibility.
Warnings from China, France, Iran, Venezuela and supermodel Gisele
haven't fazed Washington. Recession will.
3. Write-offs
Expose Wall Street's shadow-banking system. They're playing with $300
trillion in derivatives and still hiding over $100 billion of toxic
off-balance sheet asset-backed securities, plus another $300 billion
hidden worldwide. A lack of transparency is killing our international
credibility. Write it all off, now!
4. Budgeting
Force fiscal restraint back into government. America has been living
way beyond its means for years: A recession will cut back revenues at
all levels of government and cutbacks will encourage balanced
budgeting.
5. Overconfidence
A recession will wake up short-term investors playing the market. In
bull markets traders ride the rising tide, gaining false confidence
that they're financial geniuses. Downturns bruise egos but encourage
rational long-term strategies.
6. Ratings
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