The crisis between Russia and the Republic of Georgia -- a democratic country that wants to join NATO, remove Russian troops and military bases from its soil, and become a full-fledged ally of the West -- continues to worsen. This, despite the fact that Georgia has released the Russian military officers it arrested last week on charges of espionage. Hopefully, Putin will not resort to the use of force, though he has in recent days blockaded Georgia from air, rail and ground transportation and sent the Russian navy to maneuver off Georgia's Black Sea coast. Moreover, a Russian political expert is openly predicting a military coup in Georgia within the next few months, raising questions of just how involved Russian intelligence may be in undermining its democratic neighbor. Bottom line: the standoff tells us a great deal about how determined Putin is to keep former Soviet Republics from joining NATO and reducing Russian influence in the Caucuses.
The latest: "Russia has deported a planeload of Georgians it accused of being illegal migrants, and continued a crackdown on Georgian-owned businesses," reports Voice of America. "The actions mark a further deterioration in relations following Georgia's arrest last week of four Russian army officers it accused of spying....The crackdown follows Georgia's detention last week of four Russian military officers. The four men were later released, and flew home on Monday. But that did little to appease President Vladimir Putin and other top Russian officials. The Russian leader has met with his Cabinet almost daily to discuss new measures against what he calls a "bandit state," he accuses of implementing an anti-Russian policy. In his latest meeting, Mr. Putin called on law enforcement agents to seek out what he called groups with 'mafia ties,' who, he said, are known to control certain outdoor markets."
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports: "The current crisis between Georgia and Russia is not just a bilateral dispute. It is one with sweeping implications for the entire CIS. Other ex-Soviet republics are watching the controversy and weighing the impact it may have on their own residents....Many see the Georgia conflict as part of the Kremlin's broader power struggle with the United States, which has also sought footholds in the region. Both Washington and Brussels have responded relatively meekly to the Georgia crisis, sparking fears that Moscow's impact in the post-Soviet arena the may again be on the rise."
RIA Novosti (10/5/06): "A military coup in Georgia is possible before the end of the current year, according to a Russian expert, the director of the Political Studies Institute, Sergey Markov. 'It is quite possible that in Georgia there will be a military coup headed by the republic's defence minister, Irakli Okruashvili,' Markov said at a news conference on Thursday [5 October] According to him, 'a perfectly possible period for carrying out a coup is between 20 October and 1 January.'....'According to the Georgian opposition, the likely military operation against South Ossetia could start around 15 and 20 October,' Markov said."
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