Past experience shows Iran likely to retaliate for Syria incident
Zaki Shalom
On February 16, 1992 Israeli gunships attacked a convoy traveling in south Lebanon that included Hizbullah secretary-general Abbas Musawi, his wife, six-year-old son, and several escorts. All of them were killed in the attack.
The initial plan was to abduct Musawi in the framework of efforts to secure the release of Air Force navigator Ron Arad. However, it quickly became apparent that an abduction operation was impractical. Therefore, then Chief of Staff Ehud Barak decided to assassinate Musawi.  
Israel admitted it was behind the attack. Meanwhile, Musawi was quickly succeeded by a young cleric called Hassan Nasrallah.  
Iran, who views itself as Hizbullah's patron, could not have seen the IDF's operation as anything but a provocation and challenge. Therefore, so it seems, it decided to escalate matters, likely in consultation with its allies Syria and Hizbullah. On March 17, 1992, several weeks after Musawi's assassination, a serious terror attack targeted Israel's embassy in Argentina. A total of 29 people were killed and more than 240 were wounded.  
On May 21, 1994 an IDF force abducted Mustafa Dirani. Based on information available to Israel, he was the last person to hold Ron Arad as a captive in Lebanon, while heading a small terror organization connected to Iran called The Faithful Resistance.  
On June 2, 1994, Air Force jets attacked a Hizbullah training camp near the border with Syria. The strike took place while Shiites in major Lebanese cities, including Beirut, held large ceremonies to mark the Ashura holiday. Fifty terrorists reportedly killed in the bombing and dozens were wounded.  
Hizbullah's radio stations characterized the strike as "barbaric" and promised "a broad response on all levels."  
About two months later, on July 18 1994, a huge explosion devastated the Jewish community center in Buenos Aires. A total of 86 people who were in the building or near it were killed as a result of the explosion and about 240 were wounded. A large part of the building collapsed and other buildings in the vicinity were seriously damaged. In this case too, all signs led to Iran.  
Iran's credibility put to the test
We must recall those two incidents as we look into the operational activity undertaken by Israel in Syria last week. The nature of this activity is still shrouded in fog, yet it is clear that Air Force jets penetrated deep into Syrian airspace and executed an offensive act.  
This time, in contradiction to past experience, Israel's leadership displayed a more mature and sophisticated approach and refrained from claiming direct responsibility while avoiding enthusiastic statements. Yet it was difficult to hide the signs of glee and satisfaction among Israeli decision-makers. Up until now, Syria chose to refrain from an "appropriate" response to the IDF's operation.  
However, I am afraid that amid the "victory celebration" we tend to ignore the possibility of an Iranian response. While Syria may "cave in," sustain the insult, and move on, Iran will find it difficult to conduct itself in a similar manner.   
Past experience shows there is a high probability that Iran will not ignore this Israeli operation and will find a way to respond through an act that would not leave any doubt as to those behind it, even if in practice it would refrain from claiming responsibility.  
Iran's credibility as Syria's ally has been put to the test. Iranian leaders have made clear their obligation to defend Syria in case of an Israeli attack. Now, Iran will have to act on these declarations so that Tehran's alliance with Syria remains stable. Should Iran refrain from responding, Syria and perhaps Hizbullah as well would realize that Iran is an unreliable ally – Iran will likely do everything in its power so that it is not tainted by such image.  
The writer is a senior lecturer at Ben Gurion University and a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies
 Original Source