By Barak Ravid
Israel has sent several messages to Damascus in recent weeks
reiterating that it has no desire to attack Syria, in an effort to keep
Syria from misreading Israel's intentions and therefore deciding to
launch a war.
The messages have been sent via various foreign channels, a senior
government source said. In addition, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has
made public statements to this effect.
But while doing its best to reassure Syria, the government also has
been preparing intensively for the possibility that war might
nevertheless break out: Yesterday, the ministerial committee on the
northern front held its sixth meeting in the past two months.
As yet, there are no signs of progress that would enable a resumption
of Israeli-Syrian negotiations. Nevertheless, a senior European
diplomat said, "European officials who have given Olmert messages from
Damascus regarding its desire to resume negotiations have received the
impression that he is keeping an open mind."
"The situation on the northern border is fragile and sensitive, but the
European Union believes there is no danger of war, since neither side
wants to start a conflict," the diplomat added. Nevertheless, he said,
"in the present atmosphere, it is important that there not be confusing
messages."
The ministerial committee, which includes Olmert, Defense Minister Ehud
Barak, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and ministers Eli Yishai, Avi
Dichter, Shaul Mofaz, Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, Rafi Eitan and Avigdor
Lieberman, is preparing for a possible conflict with either Syria or
Hezbollah.
It has been discussing issues including intelligence reports on the
deployment of the Syrian army and on Hezbollah's efforts to rebuild
following last summer's war in Lebanon; intelligence reports on Syria's
network of rockets and surface-to-surface missiles, which threaten
Israel's home front; and the home front's preparations for a missile
attack, including installing additional warning systems, renovating
bomb shelters and assessing the ability of the nation's infrastructure
to withstand a rocket attack.
The Prime Minister's Office stressed yesterday that these meetings are
being held solely to prepare for any eventuality; they do not indicate
any Israeli intention of attacking Syria or any Syrian intention of
attacking Israel. A senior government source explained that the Second
Lebanon War revealed major gaps in Israel's home front defenses, "and
that's the major issue we're trying to solve now."
Intelligence reports indicate that the Syrian army has embarked on its
largest purchasing spree in years, and that army units have stepped up
their activities and improved their preparedness, but that no units
have shifted positions. "The Syrians also are doing their best to lower
their profile, in order not to scare Israel," the government source
said. "They are still convinced that we're the ones who will attack
them."
The intelligence agencies believe that the chances of a limited Syrian
incursion aimed at capturing a small part of the Golan Heights in order
to force Israel into talks has decreased. The more likely scenario,
they say, is terror attacks on the Golan, carried out by cells set up
by Syria for this purpose; in such a scenario, Israel's response could
potentially lead to an unwanted escalation, they say. Thus far,
however, there is no evidence that any such terrorist cells exist.
Mazal Mualem adds:
Olmert also sent reassuring messages to Israelis yesterday, telling
activists from his Kadima Party that the situation in the north "is
better than it has been for decades," and "I believe we will have a
quiet summer, a quiet fall and a quiet winter."
"There has never been quiet like that of the past year," he told the
activists, who had gathered in his home in Jerusalem. "The commanders
of the international forces in southern Lebanon also say this."
Original Source
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Israel sends conciliatory messages to Damascus to avoid war
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