Attila Somfalvi
Even if most politicians continue to remain silent in front of the cameras when they are asked about the new investigation against Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, the question faced by the political system at this time is “what’s going to happen?” The gag order on the affair prevents the politicians from embarking on significant political moves, mostly based on bitter past experience of probes against politicians that started with a bang and ended with a whimper.  
Yet everyone knows that soon we may see a political earthquake, particularly if an indictment is served against the prime minister. Should Olmert be forced to leave the Prime Minister’s Office, all eyes will turn to one person: Ehud Barak. If this scenario comes true, the Labor Party’s chairman would have to take a dramatic decision that means early elections.  
Labor Party officials estimate that Barak would not be able to miss out on another opportunity to go to elections over a moral issue. He indeed stayed in the government in the wake of the Winograd Commission report, yet shying away from new elections in case the prime minister resigns will place him in the position of being perceived as hesitant. Excuses regarding the nation’s welfare will not help him this time around.  
An Olmert resignation would shake up the political system, and Labor officials are convinced that Barak would have to take advantage of the shock in order to reinforce his status and that of his party, even if Likud turns out to be the big winner.  
However, should Olmert resign, we can assume that senior Kadima officials, including those who see themselves as premiership candidates, will initially back the natural successor, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. The big question is how long Livni will get to sit in the prime minister’s chair. On the one hand, Barak has a clear interest in shortening her days at the PM’s Office, in order to prevent Livni from establishing her status in public opinion, thus exploiting the shock within the political system.  
Shas will accept woman at helm
On the other hand, it is possible that a long period as prime minister will work against Livni and erode her status. Perhaps, say senior Labor officials, it will turn out that Livni isn’t such a great bargain. Yet at the same time, it is difficult to know what Barak really thinks. Maybe, in the framework of the fantasy to merge Labor and Kadima, he will prefer to allow Livni to grow stronger and then join forces with her ahead of the elections vis-à-vis Likud. It is clear to everyone that a three-headed political system is a recipe for instability, particularly if two of the largest parties turn to the same left-center constituency.
With the coalition shrinking as result of the Pensioners’ Party farce, Shas is becoming an even more significant component. Shas officials, as opposed to what some may think, are not quick to reject the possibility that Livni will serve as prime minister. Sources in the ultra-Orthodox party refuse to officially address the investigation against Olmert, but when they are asked about the possibility of serving in a government headed by a woman, nobody recoils.   
“It is true that in the past Livni made some statements regarding religion and state that do not quite match our positions, but we should listen to what she has been saying recently,” one Shas source says. “We won’t reject her based on things she said years ago.”  
Shas will not rush to bring the elections forward, and is signaling to Livni that if the need arises, they can talk business. Shas Chairman Eli Yishai does not like early elections, and should Livni be able to keep the current government makeup, Shas will swallow this pill and won’t be the first to jump ship.  
Original Source