The now-infamous National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear intentions has prompted some to write off the Iranian threat. The NIE report appears to represent a surprising about-face in the US intelligence community's interpretation of the facts. However in reality the portion of the report that is available to the public (only about 4 pages of analysis, the remaining 140 pages are still classified) is so narrow in scope that its conclusions are fundamentally flawed. So much so that even the IAEA (which is no friend of the Bush administration) has contradicted its findings. It disregards many important facts and prompts more questions than it provides answers. The report represents the lowest common denominator in the combined opinions of 16 different government agencies, as a result it is too watered-down and bureaucratic to be of any real value. Furthermore, most of what the public has heard has been taken out of context and distorted by the press.
While the NIE report has confused some, embarrassed others, undermined negotiations, and caused a something of a furor in the press, it seems Israel is unfazed. There is no doubt in the minds of Israel's leaders that Iran poses a serious threat to the Jewish state. Diplomacy isn't working and with each passing day Iran gets closer to its goal. There has long been speculation that Israel is preparing for a possible strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Some even suspect that Israel may target Iran's clandestine nuclear program with a tactical nuclear strike.
Such a bold move would no doubt reap the ire of the international community and probably trigger a violent backlash if not a full-scale war. Yet it wouldn't be the first time Israel has taken such a risk. Israel bombed the Iraqi nuclear reactor in Osirak in 1981 shortly before it became operational - a move that was widely condemned at the time by the international community. More recently, in September of this past year, Israel carried out a covert air strike deep inside Syrian territory. The mysterious raid remains cloaked in secrecy, however it is believed that Israel conducted a preemptive attack on a Syrian nuclear facility.
Analysts say that a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would be much more difficult than the raid on Osirak or Syria. Primarily because there are multiple sites, spread throughout the country, and many of them are fortified in underground bunkers. Other possible complications include the sheer distance to and between the various targets, as well as Iran's plans to purchase new and improved Russian-made anti-aircraft missiles.
The clock is ticking. Iran's possession of nuclear weapons is only a matter of time. Wait too long and the consequences could be disastrous, yet move too quickly and risk alienation. There are benefits to striking before the Bushehr nuclear power plant becomes operational, however taking the offensive when there is no immediate or undeniable threat of a nuclear attack could be hard to justify. With the risks high and the outcome uncertain, why would Israel consider taking such drastic action? Because what is at stake is Israel's very survival.
To learn more about this topic, we encourage you to watch The Coming Conflict: Israel and Iran in which Avi Lipkin shares his unique insights on Middle East affairs.
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