Fed chief says, 'We did it. …
very sorry, won't do it again'
By David Kupeliany
Despite the varied theories espoused by many establishment economists,
it was none other than the Federal Reserve that caused the Great
Depression and the horrific suffering, deprivation and dislocation
America and the world experienced in its wake. At least, that's the
clearly stated view of current Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.
The worldwide economic downturn called the Great Depression, which
persisted from 1929 until about 1939, was the longest and worst
depression ever experienced by the industrialized Western world. While
originating in the U.S., it ended up causing drastic declines in
output, severe unemployment, and acute deflation in virtually every
country on earth. According to the Encyclopedia Britannica, "the Great
Depression ranks second only to the Civil War as the gravest crisis in
American history."
What exactly caused this economic tsunami that devastated the U.S. and
much of the world?
In "A Monetary History of the United States," Nobel Prize-winning
economist Milton Friedman along with coauthor Anna J. Schwartz lay the
mega-catastrophe of the Great Depression squarely at the feet of the
Federal Reserve.
Here's how Friedman summed up his views on the Fed and the Depression
in an Oct. 1, 2000, interview with PBS:
PBS: You've written that what really caused the Depression was mistakes
by the government. Looking back now, what in your view was the actual
cause?
Friedman: Well, we have to distinguish between the recession of 1929,
the early stages, and the conversion of that recession into a major
catastrophe.
The recession was an ordinary business cycle. We had repeated
recessions over hundreds of years, but what converted [this one] into a
major depression was bad monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve System had been established to prevent what
actually happened. It was set up to avoid a situation in which you
would have to close down banks, in which you would have a banking
crisis. And yet, under the Federal Reserve System, you had the worst
banking crisis in the history of the United States. There's no other
example I can think of, of a government measure which produced so
clearly the opposite of the results that were intended.
And what happened is that [the Federal Reserve] followed policies which
led to a decline in the quantity of money by a third. For every $100 in
paper money, in deposits, in cash, in currency, in existence in 1929,
by the time you got to 1933 there was only about $65, $66 left. And
that extraordinary collapse in the banking system, with about a third
of the banks failing from beginning to end, with millions of people
having their savings essentially washed out, that decline was utterly
unnecessary.
At all times, the Federal Reserve had the power and the knowledge to
have stopped that. And there were people at the time who were all the
time urging them to do that. So it was, in my opinion, clearly a
mistake of policy that led to the Great Depression.
Although economists have pontificated over the decades about this or
that cause of the Great Depression, even the current Fed chairman Ben
S. Bernanke, agrees with Friedman's assessment that the Fed caused the
Great Depression.
At a Nov. 8, 2002, conference to honor Friedman's 90th birthday,
Bernanke, then a Federal Reserve governor, gave a speech at Friedman's
old home base, the University of Chicago. Here's a bit of what
Bernanke, the man who now runs the Fed – and thus, one of the most
powerful people in the world – had to say that day:
I can think of no greater honor than being invited to speak on the
occasion of Milton Friedman's ninetieth birthday. Among economic
scholars, Friedman has no peer. …
Today I'd like to honor Milton Friedman by talking about one of his
greatest contributions to economics, made in close collaboration with
his distinguished coauthor, Anna J. Schwartz. This achievement is
nothing less than to provide what has become the leading and most
persuasive explanation of the worst economic disaster in American
history, the onset of the Great Depression – or, as Friedman and
Schwartz dubbed it, the Great Contraction of 1929-33.
… As everyone here knows, in their "Monetary History" Friedman and
Schwartz made the case that the economic collapse of 1929-33 was the
product of the nation's monetary mechanism gone wrong. Contradicting
the received wisdom at the time that they wrote, which held that money
was a passive player in the events of the 1930s, Friedman and Schwartz
argued that "the contraction is in fact a tragic testimonial to the
importance of monetary forces."
After citing how Friedman and Schwartz documented the Fed's continual
contraction of the money supply during the Depression and its aftermath
– and the subsequent abandonment of the gold standard by many nations
in order to stop the devastating monetary contraction – Bernanke adds:
… Before the creation of the Federal Reserve, Friedman and Schwartz
noted, bank panics were typically handled by banks themselves – for
example, through urban consortiums of private banks called
clearinghouses. If a run on one or more banks in a city began, the
clearinghouse might declare a suspension of payments, meaning that,
temporarily, deposits would not be convertible into cash. Larger,
stronger banks would then take the lead, first, in determining that the
banks under attack were in fact fundamentally solvent, and second, in
lending cash to those banks that needed to meet withdrawals. Though not
an entirely satisfactory solution – the suspension of payments for
several weeks was a significant hardship for the public – the system of
suspension of payments usually prevented local banking panics from
spreading or persisting. Large, solvent banks had an incentive to
participate in curing panics because they knew that an unchecked panic
might ultimately threaten their own deposits.
It was in large part to improve the management of banking panics that
the Federal Reserve was created in 1913. However, as Friedman and
Schwartz discuss in some detail, in the early 1930s the Federal Reserve
did not serve that function. The problem within the Fed was largely
doctrinal: Fed officials appeared to subscribe to Treasury Secretary
Andrew Mellon's infamous 'liquidationist' thesis, that weeding out
"weak" banks was a harsh but necessary prerequisite to the recovery of
the banking system. Moreover, most of the failing banks were small
banks (as opposed to what we would now call money-center banks) and not
members of the Federal Reserve System. Thus the Fed saw no particular
need to try to stem the panics. At the same time, the large banks –
which would have intervened before the founding of the Fed – felt that
protecting their smaller brethren was no longer their responsibility.
Indeed, since the large banks felt confident that the Fed would protect
them if necessary, the weeding out of small competitors was a positive
good, from their point of view.
In short, according to Friedman and Schwartz, because of institutional
changes and misguided doctrines, the banking panics of the Great
Contraction were much more severe and widespread than would have
normally occurred during a downturn. …
Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official
representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton
and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You're right, we did it.
We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again.
Best wishes for your next ninety years.
Original
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Bernanke: Federal Reserve,caused Great Depression
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