By BUNN NAGARA
FROM this week, it emerged that Britain and France have joined Jordan
and the United Arab Emirates as allies in a new US war against Iran.
While the West Asian nations have not only agreed to assist US forces
in logistics but are also training with them for aerial coordination
and forces interoperability, the European nations add a special weight
as permanent members of the UN Security Council.
The Sarkozy government has made France an unreserved US war ally, and
last month Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner warned the world to
prepare for a war against Iran. In recent days the Britain of Prime
Minister Gordon Brown has gone further, reportedly supporting a drive
to war with a supply of British special forces troops.
The official word from London is that diplomacy is still the preferred
course to stop Iran’s nuclear enrichment project. But that is not
expected to work since unlike North Korea, the United States is
offering neither concessions nor compromises to Iran.
Besides, British press reports say that even the nuclear issue is now
redundant as a pretext for war, since Iran’s crimes are now judged to
be its alleged support of Iraqi insurgents, supply of weapons to
militant groups, and being the potential chief beneficiary of a
post-Saddam Iraq.
In addition, Shi’ite Iran is accused of supporting Afghanistan’s Sunni
Taliban, which Teheran has long opposed. British military commanders
and diplomats in Afghanistan have lately added their weight to US
allegations that Iranian sources have been supplying Taliban fighters.
Last Saturday, chief US military commander in Iraq Gen David Petraeus
raised the stakes by accusing Iranian ambassador to Iraq Hassan
Kazemi-Qomi of being a member of the Revolutionary Guard’s elite
al-Qods force. Petraeus offered no evidence and Iran denied the charge,
but the accusation has the effect of neatly sidelining diplomacy in
favour of military action.
The Qods force is also blamed for training militant groups in Iraq, a
new rationale for a US attack on Iran. There are other indicators that
the White House is shifting to a war footing.
On Monday, the Daily Telegraph newspaper said President Bush was given
to understand that Britain is “on board” a war against Iran. London has
not refuted such an understanding is in place.
Britain’s SAS (Special Air Service) and SBS (Special Boat Service) are
expected to be pressed into action, particularly in demining Iranian
ports and harbours. The role of the British navy is said to be crucial
in keeping the Straits of Hormuz open.
Pentagon officials have been cited as saying that in his meeting with
Bush in July, Brown expressed support for “tactical strikes” against
Iran but not a full-scale war. Nonetheless the effect of such strikes
would amount to the same thing.
The White House plan is to blast some 20 suspected military and nuclear
sites out of a possible 2,000 in Iran. That could provoke Iran to
retaliate, which would then trigger all-out war.
A US general said Iran needs to wreak only as much damage as “10 dead
American soldiers and four burnt trucks” to trigger a full-scale US war
against it. Teheran has already said it would do much more by
unleashing missiles if attacked even in a tactical strike.
David Wurmser, former adviser to Vice-President Dick Cheney, wants two
wars – against both Iran and Syria. His recent retirement could mean
Washington is likely to go for just one war, against Iran, for now at
least.
However, Defence Secretary Robert Gates is believed to be pushing
hardest against war, and is working with the directors of National
Intelligence and the CIA to advise Bush against attacking Iran. Against
them are pro-war neo-conservatives led by Cheney.
Iran has dismissed the threat of war as mere US psychological warfare;
but like all threats, to be credible it needs to be “actionable”. More
than in Saddam’s Iraq before, both the United States and Iran are now
set for war.
The US views anti-government protests in Iran as a sign of
vulnerability, while Teheran sees a US attack as a means of unifying
the nation under the government. And like Iraq but unlike North Korea,
Iran does not have nuclear weapons to retaliate with, thus remaining
open to a US attack.
Original
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War clouds loom ever more menacingly over Iran
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